I just read the CNN report on
thisand I have a couple of problems/questions
Generally people who commit crimes
either care or do not care about getting caught
Those who do not care about getting caught
are generally caught pretty quickly because they fail to plan or respond
Those who do care about getting caught are separated into two groups
the idiots and the rest
the idiots also get caught quickly because they cant cover their tracks
the rest take longer to get caught or never do because they are smart enough to hide the trails
[there are far more of the former than the latter]
Generally people who kill multiple people without a personal reason
can be divided similarly
those who just want to kill as many as they can
and are generally suicidal
these are the school and workplace shooting types
they go in blazing and keep shooting til it is over
and those who had some other need
which killing satisfies
i.e. serial killers
Since these people take a planned shot
and move on, we can assume they are not the former
but the latter
otherwise they would have just kept on blazing
until they were caught or killed
these people have some desire to continue life
and not get caught
my first problem comes with the time line
to go through the time line
#1 10/02 6:05pm
forward 816 minutes
#2 10/03 7:41am
forward 31 minutes
#3 10/03 8:12am
forward 25 minutes
#4 10/03 8:37am
forward 81 minutes
#5 10/03 9:58am
forward 682 minutes
#6 10/03 9:20pm
forward 1030 minutes
#7 10/04 2:30pm
then we have almost two days
between the next attacks
which either suggests that the killers
took the weekend off
or that we have not discovered other victims
now if we look at the timeline
we have an immediate problem with our definition
you have large gaps of time between some shootings
which suggest the later typing
[i.e. serial killer typing]
and then rapid bursts of shootings
which suggest more of former typing
[i.e. the postman complex]
To commit three shootings close in time and space to each other
[Patrick can you let me know approximate travel times between sites]
within 56 minutes timeframe shows recklessness and lack of planning
that there are shootings spaced at twelve or more hours
shows caution, planning and patience
such things are generally mutually exclusive
personality traits when it comes to psychotic behavior
so either they are incredibly smart
and varying their M.O. to fuck with the cops
or these killings are being done by different people
next
the question of the white van
from what I have heard on the radio
the police suspect the shooter has military training
he is using a .223 caliber rifle
which suggests an AR-15 or M-16
which would provide a little support to the military training argument
but from what I understand
the angle and distance involved in some of the shots
shows a proficiency with the weapon
so if we assume the proficiency was gained in the military
we can take a set of premises from this
a person with military training
even if they did not receive sharpshooter distinction
should be able to hit a target using only the sights on the weapon
at a hundred yards
call this basic competency
a person with the same basic competency
and a scope mounted on the weapon
should be able to hit a target a couple hundred yards away
a person with a proficiency, i.e. more than basic competency
can increase these distances profoundly
there is a reason for this training and equipment
distance is your friend
the farther away you can be from your target
when you kill them the safer you are
so if we assume the police are correct
and this person knows how to use this weapon
then he would take advantage of the properties of the weapon
i.e. range
since he is selecting individual targets
there is no reason for him to decrease the range
and many reasons for him to maximize the range
especially if the targets are indeed completely random
which I do not buy
I am not saying the targets are connected
just that the killers have a criteria by which they select their targets
if there is a criteria, then it is not completely random
[although they may not care specifically about an individual target]
[instead it may just be a set of conditions which the target unknowingly fulfilled]
If we assume that they pick an area, determines a good firing location
shoots the next person who enters the kill zone and leaves
then they would maximize the range
as it decreases the chance of a witness identifying them
and/or linking them with the shooting
so what's my point
well if you have a weapon with considerable range and the skill to use that range at least to some degree
you would pick firing locations that would be out of the immediate vicinity of the target zone
which was done in several of the shootings
but the post office shooting
was either done from a van in the parking lot
i.e. minimal range
which again is a break in the M.O.
or
the white van has nothing to do with the shooters
my guess is the latter
If I were to carry out a plan of this sort
I would evenly space out the acquisition of targets
taking time to locate, scout and observe firing locations before each shot
maximize the range in each situation
and finally arrive and leave in a casual manner
as to not attract attention
I would abort at the slightest sign of complications
and set up at another location
what is the answer here?
I do not know
but some things do not add up
granted it is easier to poke holes in theories
than create airtight ones of my own
but
I think these particular questions
are big enough to warrant raising them
I would love to hear any thoughts or problems
with the deductions and ideas I postulate here
yet another nickel