Oct. 7th, 2002

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I did an accounting of my DVDs tonight
need to find my old database
to compare
but I have id'd about half a dozen
DVDs that are missing
I dont have a clue where they could have gone too
which kind of sucks
I dont much care for buying the same thing twice

but anyway )
plural: (Default)
I am rather private person

if you ask what I have in a bag, I will say stuff

not because I have anything to hide but because it is not worth my time
to go into more detail and besides why are you asking anyway

I tend to hold my intimate past and my intimate thoughts very closely

I have never reacted well to people prying
and my least favourite question in the world is
"How was your day?"
and
"Are you ok?" is a close second

Why is it everyone always ask you if you are ok immediately after some sort of physical calamity
you get hit by a bus and ten people will run over and ask you if you are ok

"no, I just got hit by a fucking bus, I am not ok"
and then they look at you like you are the asshole

Of course you also get the "Are you ok" question when you are in a bad mood

in which case the real question is "will you tell me what is bothering you"
the answer to that will almost always be "no"

If I am bothered by something and I feel you should know about it
I will tell you, it is just that simple

the other possibility, is that something is bothering me
but I havent figured it out yet
that doesnt mean I havent figured out what has me in a bad mood
it just means I havent figured out how I feel about it
or why it is bothering me

I am happy to share my emotions
once they are sorted out
I do not hash out such things with other people

Another one of those questions is

"How are you?"

in case you never got the memo
the only acceptible answers to that question are:

Great
Good
Fine
Could be worse
Could be better

It is a casual question, meant to signify minor interest in your existence
and fill a void in small talk while getting around to the point
this is not the time to go into your entire lifes drama
if they ask further questions, then you can unload on them

back to my original train of thought

I despise the "How was your day" question
because for one thing, it is entirely too open ended

perhaps this is a guy thing but if I have something to tell you
I will

I dont need to wait until you ask about it

If I am not talking to you then it probably means
I do not have anything which I think you
should know, could benefit from, or would be amused by

and coming home from a fourteen hour day at the office
the last thing I want is to spend thirty minutes of the rest of my life
recounting the crap I went through all day

so my answers are generally

work was work
it was fine
I had a shitty day

which never seems to quite satisfy
the person asking the question

I am a person who needs
a lot of personal space and private time

I have been wondering recently
if I will ever get married
as I review my personal needs and comforts
it seems less and less likely

basically for someone to marry me
she has to either
be willing to put up with my shit
or
be marrying me for money/security/etc

unfortunately neither of these really works for me
the latter is obvious
although it would be convienent in some ways
it really would not measure up to my expectations in a marriage

the former is more tricky
because most women that I would consider marrying
would not take my crap

a variant of the old joke
"I wouldnt join any club that would have me as a member"

I have only known one woman in my life
who met my expectations
and would tolerate my crap
[she thought it was cute]
[why I never will understand]

and considering the sheer volume of women
that I have dated
let alone the vast number
that I have met in my life

and one out of either of those numbers
doesnt leave me with very good odds

well
my thoughts are wandering
and my brain hurts
so
I guess I should head off to bed
nighters all
dream lavacious dreams
of something naughty
plural: (Default)
I just read the CNN report on this
and I have a couple of problems/questions

Generally people who commit crimes
either care or do not care about getting caught

Those who do not care about getting caught
are generally caught pretty quickly because they fail to plan or respond

Those who do care about getting caught are separated into two groups
the idiots and the rest
the idiots also get caught quickly because they cant cover their tracks
the rest take longer to get caught or never do because they are smart enough to hide the trails
[there are far more of the former than the latter]

Generally people who kill multiple people without a personal reason
can be divided similarly

those who just want to kill as many as they can
and are generally suicidal
these are the school and workplace shooting types
they go in blazing and keep shooting til it is over

and those who had some other need
which killing satisfies
i.e. serial killers

Since these people take a planned shot
and move on, we can assume they are not the former
but the latter
otherwise they would have just kept on blazing
until they were caught or killed

these people have some desire to continue life
and not get caught

my first problem comes with the time line

to go through the time line

#1 10/02 6:05pm
forward 816 minutes
#2 10/03 7:41am
forward 31 minutes
#3 10/03 8:12am
forward 25 minutes
#4 10/03 8:37am
forward 81 minutes
#5 10/03 9:58am
forward 682 minutes
#6 10/03 9:20pm
forward 1030 minutes
#7 10/04 2:30pm

then we have almost two days
between the next attacks
which either suggests that the killers
took the weekend off
or that we have not discovered other victims

now if we look at the timeline
we have an immediate problem with our definition
you have large gaps of time between some shootings
which suggest the later typing
[i.e. serial killer typing]
and then rapid bursts of shootings
which suggest more of former typing
[i.e. the postman complex]

To commit three shootings close in time and space to each other
[Patrick can you let me know approximate travel times between sites]
within 56 minutes timeframe shows recklessness and lack of planning
that there are shootings spaced at twelve or more hours
shows caution, planning and patience

such things are generally mutually exclusive
personality traits when it comes to psychotic behavior

so either they are incredibly smart
and varying their M.O. to fuck with the cops
or these killings are being done by different people

next
the question of the white van

from what I have heard on the radio
the police suspect the shooter has military training
he is using a .223 caliber rifle
which suggests an AR-15 or M-16
which would provide a little support to the military training argument
but from what I understand
the angle and distance involved in some of the shots
shows a proficiency with the weapon

so if we assume the proficiency was gained in the military
we can take a set of premises from this

a person with military training
even if they did not receive sharpshooter distinction
should be able to hit a target using only the sights on the weapon
at a hundred yards
call this basic competency

a person with the same basic competency
and a scope mounted on the weapon
should be able to hit a target a couple hundred yards away

a person with a proficiency, i.e. more than basic competency
can increase these distances profoundly

there is a reason for this training and equipment
distance is your friend
the farther away you can be from your target
when you kill them the safer you are

so if we assume the police are correct
and this person knows how to use this weapon
then he would take advantage of the properties of the weapon
i.e. range

since he is selecting individual targets
there is no reason for him to decrease the range
and many reasons for him to maximize the range

especially if the targets are indeed completely random
which I do not buy
I am not saying the targets are connected
just that the killers have a criteria by which they select their targets
if there is a criteria, then it is not completely random
[although they may not care specifically about an individual target]
[instead it may just be a set of conditions which the target unknowingly fulfilled]

If we assume that they pick an area, determines a good firing location
shoots the next person who enters the kill zone and leaves
then they would maximize the range
as it decreases the chance of a witness identifying them
and/or linking them with the shooting

so what's my point
well if you have a weapon with considerable range and the skill to use that range at least to some degree
you would pick firing locations that would be out of the immediate vicinity of the target zone

which was done in several of the shootings
but the post office shooting
was either done from a van in the parking lot
i.e. minimal range
which again is a break in the M.O.
or
the white van has nothing to do with the shooters
my guess is the latter

If I were to carry out a plan of this sort
I would evenly space out the acquisition of targets
taking time to locate, scout and observe firing locations before each shot
maximize the range in each situation
and finally arrive and leave in a casual manner
as to not attract attention

I would abort at the slightest sign of complications
and set up at another location

what is the answer here?
I do not know

but some things do not add up

granted it is easier to poke holes in theories
than create airtight ones of my own
but
I think these particular questions
are big enough to warrant raising them

I would love to hear any thoughts or problems
with the deductions and ideas I postulate here

yet another nickel

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