Al Queda is not a threat
Aug. 30th, 2006 01:45 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
pluralSeriously, in fact all the terrorist groups around the world combined are not currently a threat..
You sitting there reading this have only a slightly higher chance of being killed by a terrorist than you have of being eaten by a shark in your neighborhood swimming pool [unless you piss me off, then the chances of the latter goes up dramatically].
Ok so I exaggerate slightly, lets look at the real numbers [using 2003 figures]:
Your chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident
in any particular year is: 1 in 6,498
over your lifetime those odds increase to: 1 in 84
in contrast
Your chance of dying as the result of a terrorist attack
in any particular year is: 1 in 77,292
over your lifetime: 1 in 996
Which means you are 11.9 times more likely to die in your car than by a terrorist attack.
If terrorists are half the problem the media or government makes them out to be, we should nuke detroit.
For comparison, lets look at some other causes of death
with the same approximate odds as dying from a terrorist attack
Intentional self-poisoning Y = 1/53,250 L = 1/686
Intentional self-harm by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation Y = 1/43,836 L= 1/565
So you are 1.45 times more likely to poison yourself and 1.7 times more likely to hang yourself than be killed by a terrorist.
If we look at all forms of intentional self-harm Y = 1/9,238 L = 1/119
Then you are 8.4 times more likely to kill yourself than be killed by a terrorist.
The obvious answer here is to kill you to protect you from the danger you present to yourself.
You sitting there reading this have only a slightly higher chance of being killed by a terrorist than you have of being eaten by a shark in your neighborhood swimming pool [unless you piss me off, then the chances of the latter goes up dramatically].
Ok so I exaggerate slightly, lets look at the real numbers [using 2003 figures]:
Your chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident
in any particular year is: 1 in 6,498
over your lifetime those odds increase to: 1 in 84
in contrast
Your chance of dying as the result of a terrorist attack
in any particular year is: 1 in 77,292
over your lifetime: 1 in 996
Which means you are 11.9 times more likely to die in your car than by a terrorist attack.
If terrorists are half the problem the media or government makes them out to be, we should nuke detroit.
For comparison, lets look at some other causes of death
with the same approximate odds as dying from a terrorist attack
Intentional self-poisoning Y = 1/53,250 L = 1/686
Intentional self-harm by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation Y = 1/43,836 L= 1/565
So you are 1.45 times more likely to poison yourself and 1.7 times more likely to hang yourself than be killed by a terrorist.
If we look at all forms of intentional self-harm Y = 1/9,238 L = 1/119
Then you are 8.4 times more likely to kill yourself than be killed by a terrorist.
The obvious answer here is to kill you to protect you from the danger you present to yourself.
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no subject
Date: 2006-08-31 02:37 pm (UTC)Some of them have. Some of them have tried, and been stopped. Others haven't tried because they don't know how. I guess they don't have you to show them around DC.
Oh yeah, those local English lads, bombing double-deckers because they were unhappy over their soccer teams losing.
Yes. We're talking about religious fanatics here. Reason is not their forte. Although they can still be clever enough to be dangerous.
It's quite common for people from secular cultures to doubt the sincerity of those from religious cultures. This may be the greatest disadvantage we have, since it prevents us from knowing our enemy.
no subject
Date: 2006-08-31 04:48 pm (UTC)Not ONE person stopped for terrorism since 9/11 has actually been proven to actually be a terrorist... As for not knowing how, then that sort of puts a damper on the threat as they clearly aren't the 'highly trained horde' they've been billed to be... As for terrorists in DC... you'd have to be an idiot to not see the soft targets in DC... if they exist, they wouldn't need me to point them out... and I have utterly no military training.
Oh yeah, those local English lads, bombing double-deckers because they were unhappy over their soccer teams losing.
While they clearly fingered the dudes who were holding the bombs, Not one person who knew them believed they were capable of it, and in fact I remember there was at least one investigator who suggested they may have been little more than mules... Given they showed they were using peroxide bombs which are laughably unstable, and there was no real method to their going off isn't it just as likely they were mules, and the damn things exploded enroute?
As for the people who put them up to it? They could have been part of a larger conspiracy... but what were they conspiraring to do? I'm guessing protest the British involvement in Iraq... a LOCAL issue... Also IF the dudes who did the bombing were mules who got unlucky, what does that say about the resolve of those involved in the conspiracy if not a single one of them was willing to actually die for the cause.
Yes. We're talking about religious fanatics here. Reason is not their forte. Although they can still be clever enough to be dangerous.
ALL people work only in their best interests. If all the zealots feel compelled to kill themselves they'll end up like the shakers and eventually die off... I think this is the lovely and talented plural's point (and mine as well): they may exist, but they are rare, so who cares? I knew MANY whack-job militia nuts who claimed to be willing to die for liberty, but they ran and hid after McVey blew up that building (an act, not unlike Bin Ladin's that was intended to get people to rise up)... and where the Hell are they now? People say and believe all sorts of crap, but very few have the grapes to actually follow through and if thems that do kill themselves in the process? Who cares?
Now don't get me wrong: There exist places where circumstance breeds far more discontent to provide the motivation to kill thems you view as oppressing... but they are acting locally, not globally. I personally think the only western country who should have any serious concerns is Israel, and not being Jewish, that ain't my fight, and never will be. If they want to grease arabs till the second coming given the crap hezbolla pulled this summer they have all the moral authority they need, in my book... but don't try to motivate me to put my sons and treasure into a LOCAL fight that's got nothing to do with me.
It's quite common for people from secular cultures to doubt the sincerity of those from religious cultures. This may be the greatest disadvantage we have, since it prevents us from knowing our enemy.
The only fear I have to worry about is crackpots trying to draw me into a war I've got no business being in. Now I suppose that isn't entirely correct... By buying oil from corrupt regimes that keep control of the peasants below them by breeding discontent, and not sharing fully in the wealth created by my needs I do have some obligations here. However engaging in futher slaughter to keep them in power that are truly to blame isn't really an answer... It's a complex question that isn't as simple 'they attacked us... let's kill them.'
no subject
Date: 2006-08-31 06:06 pm (UTC)Because we have no suicide videotapes where would-be bombers deliberately state that they are motivated by global solidarity with other religious fellow travellers.
Oh wait. We do.
You are wrong.
You're wrong about this too, as many suicide cults have demonstrated. People work against their own self-interests all the time. Memes, like genes, do not care if they destroy the people who carry them, and many destructive memes and genes can exist so long as they are not so destructive that they prevent their own transmission. Ebola and Shakerism tend to burn themselves out, but other diseases of the body and mind - such as HIV and Islam - can cause plenty of pain and suffering while still propagating themselves.