Winning the war in Iraq

[plural]

budhaboy got me thinking about the subject, so here goes.

Crossposted to debate

The question I often wonder listening to much of the debate and/or discussion over the Iraq war/occupation is what exactly do people really want? From my point of view, We invaded Iraq, got rid of an ugly dictator, this is a good thing, even if one doesnt buy the whole WMD reasoning (of which even I have my doubts). Now those people who were against the war to begin with, are using the prison scandal, the guerrilla warfare and civilian death tolls to argue against leaving Iraq. Personally, I see a clear responsibility on our part to buckle down and complete the job, pacify the resistance, and set up a functioning democratic and free country. I think people overall seem to have an unrealistic expectation as to how long this will take and what it will cost both in lives (US & Iraqi) and in money. I expect this overall process to take about ten years, allowing for gradual troop withdrawls after the first five or six.

I also think people need to realize that this is an ugly job in an ugly part of the world, and to expect life there to resemble an american city in six months is ridiculous.

That said, Bush is without a doubt fucking up, of course it isnt like anyone is helping him either, so we all bear some complicity.

So I propose the Plural plan for Iraq, and I will seperate each stage into three parts, Military, Economic and Politcal:

Stage One: [Timeline - the next 6 months]
Military: Double the US military forces on the ground, if necessary take troops from places like Germany to bolster our troop strength
Economic: Institute a comprehensive social welfare and home/business rebuilding program to feed, clothe and help them get their homes and business operating normally again
Political: Create a constitution & civil and criminal codes of law

Stage Two: [Timeline - 6 to 18 months out]
Military: Complete pacification of all resistance, identify areas of guerilla activity, isolate them and summarily execute one in ten males of military age in those areas.
Economic: Reopen the Iraqi oil pipelines and start selling their oil to help pay for the rebuilding of Iraq, provide preferential consideration to American companies bidding for rebuilding projects.
Political: Train a judiciary, establish civil and criminal courts and give them jurisdiction over Iraqi citizens

Stage Three: [Timeline - 18 to 30 months out]
Military: Train Iraqi police and slowly hand over small areas of territory to their governance [under US military supervision]
Economic: Institute a micro loan program to help Iraqis start businesses and participate/profit from the rebuilding of Iraq
Political: Train civil administrators, mayors, councilmen, and the like, turn over civil administration of towns then cities in a reverse order of size

Stage Four: [Timeline - 30 to 42 months out]
Military: Train and Iraqi Military and slowly hand over small areas or territory for them to secure [under US military supervision]
Economic: Create Iraqi subsidiaries of the American companies operating Iraqis utilities, and oil fields to be run by Iraqis
Political: Establish a limited democratic process by which Mayors and city councilmen can be elected

Stage Five: [Timeline - 42 to 66 months out]
Military: Establish major military bases in strategic areas, to set the groundwork for an american withdrawal
Economic: Create an Iraqi stock market, spin off the American subsidaries creating a critical mass of publicly traded companies within Iraq, limit initial IPO purchases to Iraqi nationals.
Political: Create a national congress, expand the existing democratic process to elect representatives to that body, give them control over regional administration

Stage Six: [Timeline - 66 to 90 months out]
Military: Begin a staged withdrawal of ground forces, leaving only a stabilizing force in the above mentioned bases to support a democratically elected government.
Economic: Re-open the Iraqi market to free international trade
Political: Create an executive branch, expand the existing democratic process to elect a national leader, give them control over national, international and military affairs

Stage Seven: [Timeline 10 years from now]
Having given the political and economic structures two and a half years completely free of American intervention to stabilize, we should be able to withdraw the remaining US forces completely, leaving behind a stable, democratic and free Iraq.

Go us.

Would this work / what would you change?

Is it better than the current administrations plan?

Comments

[plural.livejournal.com]

Oh come on the New Deal in america worked incredibly well, we could do something similar there.

secondly, that is exactly my point with regard to decimation, to do as the romans, put the fear of god into them while dramatically improving their lives. While they may have had many of those things before, they havent for some time and especially if you show them that even better things are coming, they will buy into it.

No, my idea with regard to creating Iraqi subsidiaries was to jumpstart the creation of a critical mass of large companies equipped to manage the oil fields, infrastructure and provide utilities. First we start by awarding contracts to US companies to do it, then we have them create Iraqi subsidiaries to manage them, then spin those subsidiaries off while creating a stock market to put shareholder ownership into the hand of the Iraqi people. The US companys profit during each step of the way so it would be win/win for everyone. I could even see "rewarding them" with a minority stake in the companies so that they could continue to profit from them into the indefinite future.

[budhaboy.livejournal.com]

Oh come on the New Deal in america worked incredibly well, we could do something similar there.

The new deal worked because the people weren't too far off working in a capitalist society, and really needed relief.

Iraq was a stalinist socialist state. Perpetuating that, then asking them to start is going to be VERY difficult.


While they may have had many of those things before, they havent for some time and especially if you show them that even better things are coming, they will buy into it.

ummm, how are you going to make their lives better? Only Americans give a shit about getting new cars every year, more and 'better' mall restarants... most people on the planet just want to live thier lives, and raise kids. They could do that under Saddam, and do it WELL before '91. YEARS of propaganda has lead them to believe that we are responsible for their misery. The BEST we could hope for is to give them what they had (full grocery stores, constant electrical power, petrol, and cars that work)...Anything more than that would necessitate motivation on their part to want it...

The Romans provided their locals with things they REALLY needed (good roads to market their wares, clean water running directly to their houses, metal).

First we start by awarding contracts to US companies to do it
good idea.

Free money to corporations to do the right thing. Who oversee this? Free markets can't be created, their needs to be a demand that has to be satiated in a way that involves competition. If you 'plant' a supply that isn't market driven, you have problems, if you satisfy a need without allowing adequate competion that is based on capital risk, you will have a different set of problems.

[plural.livejournal.com]

what I was suggesting in stage one was more of a short term jumpstart to get people functioning again, for the long term, I was envisioning something more like the new deal which took advantage of the economic chaos of the depression to make huge infrastructure improvements to the US.

Actually I would contend that while most of the world is content to live without those things, by reason of feasability, they desire them to an equal extent. Look at any first world country and you will see similar (although not as extensive) consumerism, and for that matter if you at other oil rich countries, like saudi arabia or kuwait, you will see a similar consumerist perspective by those who can afford it.

Our first step is to get their everyday lives working again, then to ensure they see that they can participate in the recovery/rebuilding and improve their lives to a degree which they couldnt under Saddam. If people see they have the ability through work to improve their security and comfort, it will be a dramatic shift from how things were before under Saddam, and provide a similar motivation to the individual as the roman programs did.

It isnt free money to corporations, it is paying them to do needed reconstruction and operation. Rebuilding the oil pipeline so that oil can be sold is essential, as it allows a market driven commodity to reach the market. Secondly, the essential industries under Saddam were nationalized so by awarding contracts to American companies to manage those industries and fulfill the demands of the market you are simply helping to organize/manage capitalism rather than subvert it entirely.

The advantage Iraq has over say Somalia is that with their oil reserves it becomes incredibly profitable to reconstruct their economy, I am merely proposing that instead of letting it go willy-nilly we stage and organize it in a way that will let both American and Iraqi companies profit while in the end leaving the majority interest of their national industry in the hands of the Iraqi people.