thoughts on the recent shootings

[plural]

I just read the CNN report on this
and I have a couple of problems/questions

Generally people who commit crimes
either care or do not care about getting caught

Those who do not care about getting caught
are generally caught pretty quickly because they fail to plan or respond

Those who do care about getting caught are separated into two groups
the idiots and the rest
the idiots also get caught quickly because they cant cover their tracks
the rest take longer to get caught or never do because they are smart enough to hide the trails
[there are far more of the former than the latter]

Generally people who kill multiple people without a personal reason
can be divided similarly

those who just want to kill as many as they can
and are generally suicidal
these are the school and workplace shooting types
they go in blazing and keep shooting til it is over

and those who had some other need
which killing satisfies
i.e. serial killers

Since these people take a planned shot
and move on, we can assume they are not the former
but the latter
otherwise they would have just kept on blazing
until they were caught or killed

these people have some desire to continue life
and not get caught

my first problem comes with the time line

to go through the time line

#1 10/02 6:05pm
forward 816 minutes
#2 10/03 7:41am
forward 31 minutes
#3 10/03 8:12am
forward 25 minutes
#4 10/03 8:37am
forward 81 minutes
#5 10/03 9:58am
forward 682 minutes
#6 10/03 9:20pm
forward 1030 minutes
#7 10/04 2:30pm

then we have almost two days
between the next attacks
which either suggests that the killers
took the weekend off
or that we have not discovered other victims

now if we look at the timeline
we have an immediate problem with our definition
you have large gaps of time between some shootings
which suggest the later typing
[i.e. serial killer typing]
and then rapid bursts of shootings
which suggest more of former typing
[i.e. the postman complex]

To commit three shootings close in time and space to each other
[Patrick can you let me know approximate travel times between sites]
within 56 minutes timeframe shows recklessness and lack of planning
that there are shootings spaced at twelve or more hours
shows caution, planning and patience

such things are generally mutually exclusive
personality traits when it comes to psychotic behavior

so either they are incredibly smart
and varying their M.O. to fuck with the cops
or these killings are being done by different people

next
the question of the white van

from what I have heard on the radio
the police suspect the shooter has military training
he is using a .223 caliber rifle
which suggests an AR-15 or M-16
which would provide a little support to the military training argument
but from what I understand
the angle and distance involved in some of the shots
shows a proficiency with the weapon

so if we assume the proficiency was gained in the military
we can take a set of premises from this

a person with military training
even if they did not receive sharpshooter distinction
should be able to hit a target using only the sights on the weapon
at a hundred yards
call this basic competency

a person with the same basic competency
and a scope mounted on the weapon
should be able to hit a target a couple hundred yards away

a person with a proficiency, i.e. more than basic competency
can increase these distances profoundly

there is a reason for this training and equipment
distance is your friend
the farther away you can be from your target
when you kill them the safer you are

so if we assume the police are correct
and this person knows how to use this weapon
then he would take advantage of the properties of the weapon
i.e. range

since he is selecting individual targets
there is no reason for him to decrease the range
and many reasons for him to maximize the range

especially if the targets are indeed completely random
which I do not buy
I am not saying the targets are connected
just that the killers have a criteria by which they select their targets
if there is a criteria, then it is not completely random
[although they may not care specifically about an individual target]
[instead it may just be a set of conditions which the target unknowingly fulfilled]

If we assume that they pick an area, determines a good firing location
shoots the next person who enters the kill zone and leaves
then they would maximize the range
as it decreases the chance of a witness identifying them
and/or linking them with the shooting

so what's my point
well if you have a weapon with considerable range and the skill to use that range at least to some degree
you would pick firing locations that would be out of the immediate vicinity of the target zone

which was done in several of the shootings
but the post office shooting
was either done from a van in the parking lot
i.e. minimal range
which again is a break in the M.O.
or
the white van has nothing to do with the shooters
my guess is the latter

If I were to carry out a plan of this sort
I would evenly space out the acquisition of targets
taking time to locate, scout and observe firing locations before each shot
maximize the range in each situation
and finally arrive and leave in a casual manner
as to not attract attention

I would abort at the slightest sign of complications
and set up at another location

what is the answer here?
I do not know

but some things do not add up

granted it is easier to poke holes in theories
than create airtight ones of my own
but
I think these particular questions
are big enough to warrant raising them

I would love to hear any thoughts or problems
with the deductions and ideas I postulate here

yet another nickel

Comments

Couldn't be Geeks

[iamjosh.livejournal.com]

I don't know that many geeks, that are that cold blooded, and want to take their little online game to the real world, what would be the sport of it. Then again, its the same idea, no real personal danger, multiple weapons, multiple targets, Highly removed really.. i guess its a possiblity, but that would be some intense setup, you'd really need to trust the other "players" you'd all need to take the same precautions, to avoid being called a "Copy Cat". And what determines the end of the game? Getting caught? do you then confess? tell them your team lost? or is it only celbrated by the winning team?

could go on but I wont.

-j

Game does not necessarily = geeks

[mselfie.livejournal.com]

well, though you are right that most geeks won't participate in things outside their computer realm, not all people who play games are geeks. nor, for that matter, do all geeks play games.

if there are two teams, maybe its a larger, more deadly version of paintball. or, of the assassin game that is popular in on and off spurts.

in which case the criteria for who gets the shot would be relative to what the rules of the game are. for such widely diverse people, there may have been an identifying factor (ie a yellow hat) or a picture that was assigned (such as in assassin). there doesn't have to be any specific criteria.

taking the thought that it is a deadly game of assassin slightly further, perhaps the groups involved didn't need to do any scouting (which is being discussed further down in the comments). don't most games of assassin involve some general information, such as job and home address, so that you're not wandering the city at random?

Re: Game does not necessarily = geeks

[iamjosh.livejournal.com]

Sounds like a rather interesting game.. it would be scary to say the least if this is truly what is happenin'

-j